The Pentagon is always fretting about the Next Big Threat, and then spends billions planning for it. Unfortunately, the threat rarely returns the favor by showing up. Richard Danzig, the former Navy secretary (and chairman of the board of Battleland’s Command Post partner, the Center for a New American Security) has a new paper out that asks important questions about the Defense Department’s reflexive prediction mania.
He has drafted 10 rules detailing this challenge, but the key ones are:
— The Propensity for Prediction Is Especially Deeply Embedded in the U.S. Department of Defense.
— The Unpredictability of Long-term National Security Challenges Will Always Confound the Irresistible Forces That Drive Prediction.
Full paper here.