Sun Tzu, the Dave Petraeus of 500 B.C. China, coined the phrase. So just who is the enemy in Afghanistan? As we near President Obama’s promised December review – likely to lead to tweaking, rather than shifting, U.S. strategy there – it’s a vital question. Bill Roggio of Long War Journal has distilled the contents of a newly-released al Qaeda martyrdom video. He gleans insights into the five foreign al Qaeda commanders it documents whom were killed in Afghanistan in recent years, and what it tells us about al Qaeda’s presence there. He contends it’s deeper and more extensive than U.S. officials are saying.
Each of the senior leaders killed had about a decade’s worth of experience in al Qaeda and commanded significant forces across wide swaths of Afghan territory. “These are perfect examples of the relative unknowns that make up al Qaeda’s deep bench of middle management and talent pool they can draw on for senior leadership positions,” a U.S. intelligence official tells Roggio. Three came from Saudi Arabia, with the others from Pakistan and North Africa.
“The profiles of these commanders reveal that, in sharp contrast to the current, official assessment of top US intelligence officials, al Qaeda has an extensive network in Afghanistan as well as a deep bench of experienced leaders,” Roggio writes. “Also, the martyrdom statement shows how al Qaeda rotates its cadre of leaders to ensure that seasoned commanders are on hand in critical areas.”
Which recalls something else Sun Tzu (whose China shares a 47-mile [76-km.] border with Afghanistan) noted:
When you engage in actual fighting, if victory is long in coming, then men’s weapons will grow dull and their ardor will be dampened…if the campaign is protracted, the resources of the State will not be equal to the strain. Now, when your weapons are dulled, your ardor dampened, your strength exhausted and your treasure spent, other chieftains will spring up to take advantage of your extremity. Then no man, however wise, will be able to avert the consequences that must ensue… In war, then, let your great object be victory, not lengthy campaigns.